Following a period of tropical dormancy, emerging information suggests the Atlantic might be entering an increasingly active phase as we approach August. The sea area has been witnessing a collection of Saharan dust since the deterioration of Beryl nearly three weeks ago, yet recently produced computer models seem to point towards the possible generation of a new tropical system by the end of July or beginning of August.
The Central Atlantic is projected to manifest spin and moisture in the coming days. This is expected to be spurred on by a tropical wave traversing the Main Development Region. Initial stages of development are likely to be gradual, primarily due to the presence of Saharan and dry air within the region. However, conditions may grow increasingly favorable for development as they approach the Antilles. The National Hurricane Center indicates a medium chance of development over the next seven days.
There are diverging viewpoints among model guidance about whether this system will evolve into a tropical depression or storm, and the trajectory it might follow after it has passed Puerto Rico. There is a general consensus that conditions ahead of this system will be mostly favorable for development.
Water temperatures in the region currently range from the mid to upper 80s, slightly above the typical late July average. The moisture packet brought in by the tropical wave is anticipated to be substantial and sufficient enough to prevent the system from drying out. Additionally, wind shear is expected to be light to moderate until the system reaches the longitude of the Bahamas.
This wave of activity coincides with the onset of the most active part of the year in the tropics and a wave of more favorable atmospheric conditions referred to as the favorable phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. This wave moves around the globe roughly every 40 days and causes a spike in tropical activities as it passes by. This pattern has recently caused the formation of a Category 4 typhoon and a tropical storm in the western Pacific following a cyclone drought that bears similarity to the current situation in the Atlantic.
The future trajectory of the tropical disturbance is yet undefined. Influenced by the Bermuda High, the disturbance’s likely path lies near the Greater Antilles. The terrain over areas like Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, and/or Cuba could potentially disrupt and weaken the system. However, the ultimate pathway of this system closer to the United States will be determined by the strength, orientation, and extent of the dome of high pressure currently present in the region.
If the formation of this system occurs in August, it will align with the typical peak season of the Atlantic hurricane. August, September, and October have warmer water temperatures, lower wind shear, and increased humidity across the basin.
A final point to be noted is the region where this upcoming system will navigate is one that is common for storms in August. Therefore, it is essential for individuals, communities, and stakeholders to stay vigilant and up-to-date on weather forecasts, while paying special attention to news and safety guidelines as issued by relevant weather and environmental agencies.
Hurricane Helene Leaves $194 Million Impact on South Carolina Timber Industry Horry County, S.C. —…
Charges Dismissed Against South Carolina Forward Ashlyn Watkins Columbia, S.C. - Suspended South Carolina forward…
Columbia Woman Encounters Snake in Bathroom Columbia, South Carolina – In a surprising incident early…
Spartanburg, South Carolina Richard Moore, a 59-year-old inmate, was executed on Friday evening in South…
Flood Watch Alert for Areas Around Charleston, SC Hey there, Charleston! It looks like we’re…
NORTH CHARLESTON, S.C. – Burglary Gone Wrong Leads to Arrest! In a bustling neighborhood in…