Charleston’s Stormy Future: Palaeotempestology Sheds Light on Predicting Hurricane Activity

Charleston’s Stormy Future: Palaeotempestology Sheds Light on Predicting Hurricane Activity

Charleston is a city frequently shaped by storms. From the Spanish Repulse in 1686, one of the earliest documented tropical storms by White settlers, to Hurricane Hugo in 1989, which continues to influence Charleston’s emergency management protocols. This historical context has led to the advent of a new field within climatology – Paleotempestology.

The Scope and Limitations of Paleo-hurricane Research

Paleotempestology refers to the study of past storms and historical records, with the aim to build a comprehensive understanding of hurricane activity spanning several thousand years. This research is carried out, in large part, to arm city planners and lawmakers with accurate historical data and forecasts about potential future weather incidents. Although South Carolina has suffered storms recorded over the last 175 years, the data remains somewhat sketchy.

“There might seem like a lot of data, but it’s really not when we’re talking about the most extreme hurricanes because those are inherently rare,” Josh Bregy, an assistant professor of earth sciences at Clemson University, explained.

Paleotempestology, as a discipline, is primarily constrained to the Holocene period, that is, everything post the last Ice Age. By studying various climatic “regimes” from the past 11,700 years, researchers can deduce a baseline frequency of how often an area is hit by storms as well as the severity of these occurrences and their peak intensity.

Implications for Charleston

Findings from paleo-record suggest an expected decrease in overall hurricane activity but a relative increase in the intensity of the most extreme storms. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) forecasts an increase in rainfall rates from tropical storms over the coming decades, including a potential surge in more destructive storms.

The effects of climate change have only amplified over the last century, with greenhouse gas concentrations rising steadily since the mid-20th century. This calls for a reevaluation of what constitutes a “normal climate,” for which Paleotempestology could serve as an important tool.

Beaufort County, a coastal city like Charleston, stands to gain valuable insights from the Paleotempestology record. Even an incomplete record spanning millennia could help policymakers gauge the scope and cost of future infrastructure projects required to combat weather incidents.

“In some sense, the entire field sort of owes its genesis to reinsurance companies trying to get that data,” Jeff Donnelly, a Paleotempestology researcher at the Massachusetts-based Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution, stated. Donnelly further elaborated that the current century has been comparatively quiet despite human impacts on climate, which suggests that the climate system is capable of ushering in much more active storm regimes.

As per NOAA, the current year has already recorded unusually high ocean temperatures. On the brink of yet another Atlantic hurricane season catalyzed by the La Niña effect, NOAA has released its most severe forecast for 2024.

These developments underscore the critical need for understanding hurricane patterns past, present, and future, making the study of Paleo-hurricanes an essential instrument in grappling with our climate future.